Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 28th, 2020
Tara Gentles • October 28, 2020
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank is recalibrating the QE program to shift purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have more direct influence on the borrowing rates that are most important for households and businesses. At the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week. The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.
The global and Canadian economic outlooks have evolved largely as anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with rapid expansions as economies reopened giving way to slower growth, despite considerable remaining excess capacity. Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infections are likely to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries, and growth will continue to rely heavily on policy support.
In the United States, GDP growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably. China’s economic output is back to pre-pandemic levels and its recovery continues to broaden. Emerging-market economies have been hit harder, especially those with severe outbreaks. The recovery in Europe is slowing amid mounting lockdowns. Overall, global GDP is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020 before growing by just over 4 ½ percent, on average, in 2021–22.
Oil prices remain about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, non-energy commodity prices, on average, have more than fully recovered. Despite continued low oil prices, the Canadian dollar has appreciated since July, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar.
In Canada, the rebound in employment and GDP was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer. The economy is now transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase. In the fourth quarter, growth is expected to slow markedly, due in part to rising COVID-19 case numbers. The economic effects of the pandemic are highly uneven across sectors and are particularly affecting low-income workers. Recognizing these challenges, governments have extended and modified business and income support programs.
After a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence. Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.
CPI inflation was at 0.5 percent in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.
As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023. The Bank is continuing its QE program and recalibrating it as described above. The program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 20, 2021.
Tara Gentles
CANADIAN MORTGAGE EXPERT
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As patios wind down and pumpkin spice ramps up, fall is the perfect reset for your home—and your homeowner game plan. These quick wins boost comfort, curb appeal, and efficiency now, and set you up for a low-stress winter (and a strong spring market). 1) Safety & “silent leak” checks (Weekend-ready) Clean gutters & downspouts. Add leaf guards where trees overhang. Roof scan. Look for lifted shingles, cracked flashings, or moss. Seal the shell. Re-caulk window/door trim; replace weatherstripping. Test alarms. New batteries for smoke/CO detectors; add one near bedrooms. Why it matters: Prevent water intrusion and heat loss before storms roll in. 2) Heat smarter, not harder Furnace/boiler tune-up and filter change. Smart thermostat with schedules and geofencing. Draft hunt. Foam gaskets behind outlets, door sweeps on exterior doors. ROI tip: Efficiency upgrades lower monthly bills and can improve lender ratios if you’re eyeing a refinance later. 3) Fall-proof your yard (so spring you says “thanks”) Aerate + overseed + fall fertilize for thicker turf next year. Trim trees/shrubs away from siding and power lines. Mulch perennials and plant spring bulbs now. Shut off/bleed exterior taps and store hoses to avoid burst pipes. 4) Extend outdoor season (cozy edition) Portable fire pit or propane heater + layered blankets. Path/step lighting for darker evenings (solar or low-voltage). Weather-resistant storage for cushions/tools to preserve value. Neighborhood curb appeal: Warm lighting and tidy beds make a big first impression if you list in shoulder season. 5) Water management = winter peace of mind Re-grade low spots and add downspout extensions (2–3+ metres). Check sump pump (and backup). Look for efflorescence or damp corners in the basement. 6) Mini-renos that punch above their weight Entry/mudroom upgrade: hooks, bench, boot trays, closed storage. Laundry room tune-up: counter over machines, sorting bins, task lighting. Kitchen refresh: new hardware, tap, and under-cabinet lighting in one afternoon. Budget guide: Many of these land under a micro-reno budget—perfect for a modest line of credit. 7) Indoor air quality tune-up Deep clean vents and dryers (including the rigid duct). Add door mats (exterior + interior) to catch grit/salt. Houseplants or HEPA purifier for closed-window months. Fast Timeline (pin this to the fridge) Late August–September Gutters/downspouts, roof/caulking, HVAC service, lawn care, plant bulbs, exterior tap shut-off plan, path lighting. October Weatherstripping/sweeps, fire pit setup, organize mudroom/garage, test alarms, sump check, downspout extensions, dryer vent cleaning. Financing smarter: make your mortgage work for your home Annual mortgage check-in. As rates, income, and goals evolve, a quick review can free up cash flow or open options for a small fall project budget. HELOC vs. top-up refinance. For bite-size projects, a HELOC can be flexible. For bigger renos you plan to pay down, a top-up refi might make more sense. Bundle & prioritize. Knock out the high-impact, low-cost items first (air sealing, safety, water management) before the cosmetic upgrades. Not sure which route fits your fall plans? We’ll run the numbers and map the best financing path for your specific budget and goals. Quick Checklist (copy/paste) ☐ Clean gutters/downspouts; add guards ☐ Roof & flashing visual check ☐ Re-caulk, weatherstrip, add door sweeps ☐ HVAC service + new filter ☐ Aerate/overseed/fertilize; trim trees; plant bulbs ☐ Path & entry lighting ☐ Drain/bleed outdoor taps; store hoses ☐ Downspout extensions; sump test ☐ Dryer vent cleaning ☐ Mudroom/garage organization ☐ Schedule mortgage review / discuss HELOC vs refi Ready to make fall your low-stress season? Book a quick fall mortgage check-up—15 minutes to see if a small credit line or a tweak to your current mortgage could cover your priority projects without straining cash flow.
If you're not all that familiar with the ins and outs of mortgage financing, the term "second mortgage" might cause a bit of confusion. Many people incorrectly assume that a second mortgage is arranged when your first term is up for renewal or when you sell your first home. They think that the next mortgage you get is your "second mortgage." This is not the case. A second mortgage is an additional mortgage on a single property, not the second mortgage you get in your lifetime. When you borrow money to buy a house, your lawyer or notary will register your mortgage on the property title in what is called first position. This means that your mortgage lender has the first claim against the sale proceeds if you sell your property. If you happen to default on your mortgage, this is the security the lender has in repossessing your property. A second mortgage falls in behind the first mortgage on your property title. When you sell your property, the lawyers will use the sale proceeds to pay off your mortgages in sequence, the first position mortgage is paid out first, and the second mortgage is paid out second. After both mortgages are paid off completely, you get the remaining equity. When you secure a second mortgage, you continue making payments on your first mortgage as per your mortgage agreement. You must also then fulfill the terms of the second mortgage. So why would you want a second mortgage? Well, a second mortgage comes in handy when you're looking to access some of your home equity, but you either have excellent terms on your first mortgage that you don't want to break, or you’d incur a huge penalty to break your first mortgage. Instead of refinancing the first mortgage, a second mortgage can be a better option. A second mortgage is often used as a short-term debt consolidation tool to help provide you with better cash flow. If you’ve accumulated a considerable amount of high-interest unsecured debt, and you have equity in your home, you can secure a second mortgage to lower your overall cost of borrowing. If you'd like to know more about how a second mortgage works, or if you'd like to discuss anything related to mortgage financing, please connect anytime!
